| SHOULD INDIA BE AFRAID OF CHINA | ||
| Part I | ||
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TThere
is widespread talk in public and media that India is weaker than China,
which is modernizing its military and massing big number of troops on
Indo-Tibetan border. The background of fear is the 1962 war. The fact
is people are ignorant of India's modern history. They are not even interested
in knowing it. Indians have never been fond of history. Our history textbooks
quote foreign visitors (mostly Chinese) to tell us about our country.
Even senior bureaucrats do not know true history of India's partition,
independence and British perfidy. |
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| (The writer is author of recently published book, titled "Reflections on the History of World in 20th Century" Web-site www.peaceamongmankind.com.) | ||
| SHOULD INDIA BE AFRAID OF CHINA | ||
| Part II | ||
| China
has an area of 3.7 square miles and its present population is 1.3 billion.
Only 10 to 11 % of area is arable. Most of arable area is in Eastern 1/3
of land. In this eastern 1/3 of land, 90% of population lives. Land is in
great demand, hence people have been migrating to outside countries of South
East Asia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, and now U.S. China is mostly homogenous.
Minorities (6%) are Manchus, Mongols, Tibetans, Mao Yi. Main religions are
Taoism, Confucianism and Buddhism. A Chinese can follow all 3 or none at
all. The last Emperor was Manchu, who ruled China from 1644 to 1911. Thru 17th century to 18th century, Manchus sent expensive expeditions and Manchu Empire extended to Siberia, Tibet, Nepal - during 1788 to 1830 against Nepal, 1766-1769 against Burma. By 1830, Korea, Nepal, Burma, Indochina and Siam had tributary status of Chinese emperors. China was one of the most advanced countries till the 17th century. It gave many inventions to human race e.g. paper, printing, china, and gunpowder. This created a feeling of superiority, called "Middle Kingdom". Chinese felt other people were barbarians. To protect China from Barbarians from north, it built the Great Wall of China. World, especially Western Europe started changing in 18th century. Industrial Revolution started in the middle of 18th century to change the world. Content in their "Middle Kingdom" mentality, the Chinese did not understand the changes. This was to cause them great harm. From 19th century, China came under attack by European imperialist powers (later to be joined by Japan) and China suffered great humiliation. 1840 to 1949 is called "century of humiliation". All principal Europeans imperial powers wanted to cut "Chinese Melon" and have their pieces as sphere of influence towards the end of 19th century. At that time U.S. had expanded to west coast and occupied it and Philippines, becoming an eastern Asian power. The U.S. was a latecomer in the imperialist game. It had been lusting for business with China. Hence it came out with "Open Door" policy meaning all nations should be free to trade with China, its markets, and raw materials. Hence the U.S. opposed scheme of European powers. Due to the strength of U.S., Europeans gave up their plan and China was saved from division. After WWII, China had civil war from 1946 to 1949, between Communists and Chiang's Nationalists. The U.S., which came out from WWII as the great and most powerful super power, did not want Communists to win. First Communists attacked Manchuria, which had been under Japanese occupation since 1930. Red army captured all the modern arms left behind in Manchuria by the Japanese. Similar, was the case on a much bigger scale with American arms supplied to Chiang. During Civil War, U.S. fully equipped on a liberal scale 8 million troops of Chiang and gave financial aid he needed. He took with him less than a million troops to Taiwan, while withdrawing in 1949. Most of American arms in the hands of Chiang's troops fell in the hands of PLA (People's Liberation Army), as Chiang's troops often did not fight but gave up. Thus Japanese and American arms added to the strength of PLA. The Indian Army did not have similar advantage in 1962 and the disparity of arms of PLA and Indian Army was one of the factors in Chinese victory. During 1950s, Soviet Union was friendly with fellow Red China and gave help in setting up many industries and loan of $ 300 million for purchases of war material. China was isolated from western world. From 1960 to 1990 Soviet Union also did not help China. Other countries gave little help to China. Hence China fell behind. In 1977, Deng's slogan became four modernizations - rapid development of agriculture, industry, defense and science and technology. China wanted to achieve parity in defense with U.S. and Soviet Union. Peking called for foreign technology and purchase of foreign weapons as part of modernization of military, which was considered 20 years behind Soviet Union. China invaded Vietnam in 1979 to teach it a lesson with 200,000 to 300,000 troops and 300 aeroplanes and artillery in accordance with "Middle Kingdom" tradition. The war ended with no changes in boundary and China learning a lesson in stead. War lasted for a month with heavy casualties on both sides. The Chinese army had proven incapable of carrying out a coordinated ground assault from three directions. Command and communications were disjointed and Chinese forces fell victim to their own "friendly fire". Due to poor performance of PLA in its war with Vietnam in 1979, Deng repeated his condemnation of it as an unfit force and called for its further restructuring and streamlining. Till 1990, China did not succeed in progressing with modernization. Like India, China could not succeed in manufacturing a modern fighter plane. After the fall of Soviet Union, situation changed and Russia started to give modern arms to China. Deng started liberalizing Chinese economy from 1980. Its growth rate increased to 8.2% of GNP during 1980 to 1988. When PRC started in 1949, China was like India, poor, backward, illiterate. In 1988, per capita income of China and India both was $ 330. It means, prior to 1988, China was poorer than India. But from 1989, Chinese growth rate has increased, so that today Chinese per capita income is 3 times than that of India. India started liberalizing it economy in 1990, i.e. ten years later than China. This explains the difference between the sizes of economy of two countries at present. China got a big shock in 1991 with U.S. - Iraq war. PLA saw the application of numerous new high technologies developed in U.S. and its partners. In appreciating these, PLA High Command saw its deficiencies - electronic warfare, precision guided ammunition, stealth technology, precision bombing of military targets, which minimized collateral damage, campaign coordination thru air-borne command and control systems, the use of satellite in targeting and intelligence gathering, space based early warning and surveillance, the use of command center in U.S. to coordinate anti-missile defense, in Saudi Arabia and massive ability of troops to exist in desert conditions, modern logistics, information warfare and ability to "blind" Iraqi intelligence and defense etc. PLA began to appreciate the role of weapon and technology in place of its previous doctrine- "man is most important element in warfare". China tried to develop them without much success. It is far behind the U.S. and will take decades to catch up with U.S. India's nuclear tests in 1998 jolted China. It tried to assess relative strengths of India and China and found in most cases of conventional forces, India was more advanced than PLA. |
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| (The writer is author of recently published book, titled "Reflections on the History of World in 20th Century" Web-site www.peaceamongmankind.com.) | ||
| SHOULD INDIA BE AFRAID OF CHINA | ||
| Part III | ||
| When
Communists came to power in 1949, China shared borders with 14 countries
and maritime boundaries with 7. Territorial disputes existed with Soviet
Union, with Central Asian Republics, Japan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Sikim,
Burma Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei and Philippines. Most serious boundary
problems were with Soviet Union, India and Vietnam and it fought wars with
them. Taiwan is a special case, though it is the most important and may prove very dangerous. Taiwan was part of Chinese Empire till Sino-Japanese war in 1895. U.S. is a seeker of world hegemony and does not like Communist China to have Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a part of China and is determined to prevent Taiwan coming under any other power. U.S. gives most modern arms including missiles to Taiwan to prevent China from overpowering Taiwan. If necessary, U.S. is determined to jump in the fray tilting the balance in Taiwan's favor. To probe Communist China, U.S. encourages Taiwan move towards independence. Communist China replies with angry response; so also when U.S. gives weapons to Taiwan to bring parity between Taiwan and China. From the end of WW II, U.S. has been against Chinese Communists. Even now Red China secretly distrusts U.S. especially because of Taiwan and considers U.S. as its biggest enemy. In the beginning, Nehru's idea was that best policy for both, India and China was to have friendly relations in the self-interests of both countries, as well as Asia and the world. Both had suffered from imperialists. If they become enemies like France and Germany in Europe, they would suffer as had been the case with France, Germany and Europe. Red China did not agree due to its "Middle Kingdom" mentality and Mao looked down on India. Nehru was sad with this rift. But, he was not afraid of China. Nehru wrote on October 1, 1959 to Chief Ministers, "No principle and no policy can be pursued thru weakness or fear. I have no fear of China.... there is no need for us to fear and indeed fear is never a good companion.... We have to be firm and vigilant." On October 26,1959 Nehru wrote to Chief Ministers, "I think we are strong enough to protect ourselves though we might have a few knocks." After Communists came in power, China's policy was to encourage people's wars in other countries. This isolated China from other countries except Soviet block. After China and Soviet Union fell out in 1960, China remained in isolation, except with U. S. from 1973. China did not get much help from U.S. After the collapse of Soviet Union in 1990, China feared that U.S. would give China a charge-sheet to pull it down, just as it did with Iraq in 1990. China changed its foreign policy to befriend nations on its periphery, so that it will not be isolated in case of trouble with U.S. It succeeded. It made special efforts to befriend Russia, India, Vietnam and South Korea. By the dawn of 21st century it solved border problems with Russia and Vietnam and it had friendship treaties with Russia, Vietnam and South Korea. In the case of India, it realized what Nehru had thought about friendship between China and India. It became an observer of NAM movement. China now believes U.S. is arrogant, hegemonic power threatening both China and India. Hence China and India should stand together to restrain U.S. unipolar, unilateral and hegemonic behavior. China's growing naval presence in Indian Ocean in comparison to that of U.S. navy or even much smaller Indian Navy is negligible. Similarly, PLA's Air Force has big numbers but not quality. Most of its fighters are aged J6 and J7 made in China based on Soviet fighters - J6 is Mig19 and J7 is copy of Mig21. They are sitting ducks in aerial combat with modern fighters. Its modern fighters acquired since 1990 are few. India's fighters have bigger percentage of more recent aircraft. Opinion of a renowned American expert on Chinese military and its modernization may be quoted in next paragraph: "Indian forces along its lengthy border are generally regarded as superior in numbers and quality to Chinese border forces as shown in two skirmishes in 1967 and 1987-88. It is because India continues to improve its most relevant capabilities for countering any political threat across the border, by upgrading or acquiring new aircraft, missiles, artillery, command and communication facilities and radars. China has for some time been most interested in developing cooperative ties with India. Far greater concern is to India's evolving missile program. In response to China's threat, India has sought to expand its own nuclear capability by exploding a nuclear weapon in 1998, and is devoting considerable resources to the development of both medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles, that are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to any major Chinese cities." Chinese military philosopher, Sun Tsu wrote that best general is one who can win a war without firing a shot. How is this possible? By propaganda and sending spies to enemy country, so that the enemy is demoralized and begins to think it is too weak to win. Those Indians, who are making people believe that we are too weak compared to China, are really doing the work about which Sun Tsu wrote. It is important to remember that both India and China are nuclear powers. Nuclear powers do not go to war against each other for petty reasons. China has to think about other enemies along the border. Secondly, number of troops, which can invade India from Tibet, is limited. Moreover Indians should understand ideas of Nehru who piloted the ship of state in most difficult and dangerous period of freedom. |
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| (The writer is author of recently published book, titled "Reflections on the History of World in 20th Century" Web-site www.peaceamongmankind.com.) | ||
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