SHOULD INDIA BE AFRAID OF CHINA
Part I

TThere is widespread talk in public and media that India is weaker than China, which is modernizing its military and massing big number of troops on Indo-Tibetan border. The background of fear is the 1962 war. The fact is people are ignorant of India's modern history. They are not even interested in knowing it. Indians have never been fond of history. Our history textbooks quote foreign visitors (mostly Chinese) to tell us about our country. Even senior bureaucrats do not know true history of India's partition, independence and British perfidy.

In 1947, British divided India in their own self-interest so that they could control "life and progress" of India and keep up the prestige of Britain's worldwide Empire. They did this by creating and promoting communal riots between Muslims and Hindus to prove that they could not live peacefully together. They did this so cleverly that most of the world and Indians thought that British were very good, specially Labor Party and Labor leaders like Atlee and Cripps. The fact was there was not much difference between two parties, as far as the British Empire was concerned, as wrote Jawahar Lal Nehru. Their plan was as follows.

At that time, Britain had become very weak militarily and economically due to World War. At that time the British troops number in India was 70,000 against 2.4 million Indians and the Indian Army was no more loyal to them. Due to necessity of fighting Japan, Indian Army was expanded to 2.5 million and Indians were trained in the use of modern arms. Hence, they could not rule India militarily but could create trouble for India due to superior naval strength of two sides. Lifeline of British Empire was broken. As Indians could not manufacture modern arms, the British could manipulate the military strength of both India and Pakistan, by supplying them arms.
The raj ended in India (with post partition boundaries in August 1947), leaving it starving, partitioned with the threat of Balkanization due to lapse of paramountcy, defenseless, and facing the problem of one of the biggest migrations in history. No wonder the British did not expect India to survive. But SURVIDE IT DID, overcoming daunting odds. India lost wheat-producing areas in West Pakistan. They were developed by hardy Sikh and Hindu farmers. India also lost rice and jute in East Pakistan, aggravating food/raw material problem. India had become very poor with little industry and capability to make modern arms. It had become food deficient. Problems were, partition, mass killing and migration, shortage of food with little foreign trade. It meant no foreign exchange to import food, machinery and arms. India survived and made steady but slow progress. The credit goes to one of the greatest man, Jawahar Lal Nehru, some of his great colleagues like Sardar Patel and resiliency of Indian people.

In independent India top priority was given to 3 problems.
No1. Rehabilitation of refugees and consolidation of the country by elimination of more than 500 states by joining many with provinces or in big groups.
No 2. Food problem. New projects were started to help in grow more food campaign, like production of fertilizers, and manufacture of railway engines.
No.3. Expenditure of more money for economic development by keeping defense expenditure low.

During 1947-1948 defense expenditure was Rs., 190 crores (i.e. 2% of GNP). As U.S. started to give Pakistan more modern arms in the name of fighting communism in 1954, India had to raise defense expenditure to Rs. 290 crores (i.e. 2.9% of GNP). After 1962, six mountain divisions were raised to enable army to fight on both fronts, i.e. Pakistan and China. Defense expenditure rose to Rs. 816 crores. from Rs. 280 crores in 1960-1961. After 1962, Indian government started making plans for expansion of India's military strength. Due to India's policy of non-alignment, Soviet Union was willing to give required military arms to India. On September 21, 1964 Defense Minister announced a 5-year plan to enhance India's defense forces by March 1969 to an army of 825,000 men and air force to 45 squadrons of modern fighters. This was 3 times that of 1962. Of course, this was at the cost of economic development.
The Indian military soon showed its strength. Proud Indian Army avenged Chinese aggression of 1962 in 1967 at Nathu La and taught a lesson to Chinese never to under-estimate Indian army. Again Chinese intruded in Sumdurong Valley in Arunachal Pradesh in 1987; but withdrew without a fight, when Indian mechanized infantry surrounded the Chinese. In 1965 during the middle of 5-year expansion plan, Pakistan boasted that it would take Kashmir by force and made an attempt to take Kashmir, but attempt failed miserably.

In 1971, world saw the armed strength of India when 5 year expansion had changed Indian strength. Pakistan, the ally of U.S., champion of human rights and democracy, was committing genocide and murdering democracy in Pakistan. In East Pakistan, Pakistan's 100,000 strong army killed 3 million innocent civilians, which included 2 million Hindus and drove away remainder Hindus (8 million) and 2 to 3 million Muslim East Pakistani civilians to India. On December 3, 1971, Pakistan attacked Indian cities starting Indo-Pakistan war. Indian army moved in Pakistan next day. After only four days of war Dictator Yahaya Khan, who had vowed to teach "that women" (meaning Indira), agreed to Pak army asking for cease-fire at the request of Pak army commander in East Pakistan, but war continued at the instigation of U.S. and China for another week. He asked for surrender of Pak army in East Pakistan, even with China and U.S. on its side. It was most disgraceful that after only a loss of 7,000 troops in East Pakistan 93,000 troops surrendered and became Indian prisoners of war. World recognized the strength of India.
Though lot of credit goes to Nehru for survival of India and its steady progress, and present might, there are many Indians, who hate and criticize him and blame him for all India's troubles! They do not understand the seemingly insurmountable problems he faced and created a great country. Today India's GNP in terms of PPP is third in the world. India has big industrial base and is a major power. Nehru knew China more than anybody else and some of his ideas are worth quoting. On October 1, 1959, he wrote to Chief Ministers about India- China problem:

"In any event we have to be firm and vigilant and at the same time calm and restrained, and we must realize that real strength does not come from strong language, or even by addition of our armed forces, but from industrialization in a big way and from unity". Nehru's decisions to spend more money on economic development than on defense in the beginning and non-alignment were correct, though criticized at that time. One enabled India to develop economically and later militarily. The second enabled India to get arms from Soviet Union so that U.S did not succeed in making India a satellite like Pakistan.

April 10, 2010 P.K. Nigam
(The writer is author of recently published book, titled "Reflections on the History of World in 20th Century" Web-site www.peaceamongmankind.com.)
 
 
SHOULD INDIA BE AFRAID OF CHINA
Part II
China has an area of 3.7 square miles and its present population is 1.3 billion. Only 10 to 11 % of area is arable. Most of arable area is in Eastern 1/3 of land. In this eastern 1/3 of land, 90% of population lives. Land is in great demand, hence people have been migrating to outside countries of South East Asia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, and now U.S. China is mostly homogenous. Minorities (6%) are Manchus, Mongols, Tibetans, Mao Yi. Main religions are Taoism, Confucianism and Buddhism. A Chinese can follow all 3 or none at all.

The last Emperor was Manchu, who ruled China from 1644 to 1911. Thru 17th century to 18th century, Manchus sent expensive expeditions and Manchu Empire extended to Siberia, Tibet, Nepal - during 1788 to 1830 against Nepal, 1766-1769 against Burma. By 1830, Korea, Nepal, Burma, Indochina and Siam had tributary status of Chinese emperors.

China was one of the most advanced countries till the 17th century. It gave many inventions to human race e.g. paper, printing, china, and gunpowder. This created a feeling of superiority, called "Middle Kingdom". Chinese felt other people were barbarians. To protect China from Barbarians from north, it built the Great Wall of China. World, especially Western Europe started changing in 18th century. Industrial Revolution started in the middle of 18th century to change the world. Content in their "Middle Kingdom" mentality, the Chinese did not understand the changes. This was to cause them great harm. From 19th century, China came under attack by European imperialist powers (later to be joined by Japan) and China suffered great humiliation. 1840 to 1949 is called "century of humiliation". All principal Europeans imperial powers wanted to cut "Chinese Melon" and have their pieces as sphere of influence towards the end of 19th century. At that time U.S. had expanded to west coast and occupied it and Philippines, becoming an eastern Asian power. The U.S. was a latecomer in the imperialist game. It had been lusting for business with China. Hence it came out with "Open Door" policy meaning all nations should be free to trade with China, its markets, and raw materials. Hence the U.S. opposed scheme of European powers. Due to the strength of U.S., Europeans gave up their plan and China was saved from division.

After WWII, China had civil war from 1946 to 1949, between Communists and Chiang's Nationalists. The U.S., which came out from WWII as the great and most powerful super power, did not want Communists to win. First Communists attacked Manchuria, which had been under Japanese occupation since 1930. Red army captured all the modern arms left behind in Manchuria by the Japanese. Similar, was the case on a much bigger scale with American arms supplied to Chiang. During Civil War, U.S. fully equipped on a liberal scale 8 million troops of Chiang and gave financial aid he needed. He took with him less than a million troops to Taiwan, while withdrawing in 1949. Most of American arms in the hands of Chiang's troops fell in the hands of PLA (People's Liberation Army), as Chiang's troops often did not fight but gave up. Thus Japanese and American arms added to the strength of PLA. The Indian Army did not have similar advantage in 1962 and the disparity of arms of PLA and Indian Army was one of the factors in Chinese victory.
During 1950s, Soviet Union was friendly with fellow Red China and gave help in setting up many industries and loan of $ 300 million for purchases of war material. China was isolated from western world. From 1960 to 1990 Soviet Union also did not help China. Other countries gave little help to China. Hence China fell behind. In 1977, Deng's slogan became four modernizations - rapid development of agriculture, industry, defense and science and technology. China wanted to achieve parity in defense with U.S. and Soviet Union. Peking called for foreign technology and purchase of foreign weapons as part of modernization of military, which was considered 20 years behind Soviet Union.

China invaded Vietnam in 1979 to teach it a lesson with 200,000 to 300,000 troops and 300 aeroplanes and artillery in accordance with "Middle Kingdom" tradition. The war ended with no changes in boundary and China learning a lesson in stead. War lasted for a month with heavy casualties on both sides. The Chinese army had proven incapable of carrying out a coordinated ground assault from three directions. Command and communications were disjointed and Chinese forces fell victim to their own "friendly fire". Due to poor performance of PLA in its war with Vietnam in 1979, Deng repeated his condemnation of it as an unfit force and called for its further restructuring and streamlining. Till 1990, China did not succeed in progressing with modernization. Like India, China could not succeed in manufacturing a modern fighter plane. After the fall of Soviet Union, situation changed and Russia started to give modern arms to China.
Deng started liberalizing Chinese economy from 1980. Its growth rate increased to 8.2% of GNP during 1980 to 1988. When PRC started in 1949, China was like India, poor, backward, illiterate. In 1988, per capita income of China and India both was $ 330. It means, prior to 1988, China was poorer than India. But from 1989, Chinese growth rate has increased, so that today Chinese per capita income is 3 times than that of India. India started liberalizing it economy in 1990, i.e. ten years later than China. This explains the difference between the sizes of economy of two countries at present.

China got a big shock in 1991 with U.S. - Iraq war. PLA saw the application of numerous new high technologies developed in U.S. and its partners. In appreciating these, PLA High Command saw its deficiencies - electronic warfare, precision guided ammunition, stealth technology, precision bombing of military targets, which minimized collateral damage, campaign coordination thru air-borne command and control systems, the use of satellite in targeting and intelligence gathering, space based early warning and surveillance, the use of command center in U.S. to coordinate anti-missile defense, in Saudi Arabia and massive ability of troops to exist in desert conditions, modern logistics, information warfare and ability to "blind" Iraqi intelligence and defense etc. PLA began to appreciate the role of weapon and technology in place of its previous doctrine- "man is most important element in warfare". China tried to develop them without much success. It is far behind the U.S. and will take decades to catch up with U.S.

India's nuclear tests in 1998 jolted China. It tried to assess relative strengths of India and China and found in most cases of conventional forces, India was more advanced than PLA.
April 25, 2010 P.K. Nigam
(The writer is author of recently published book, titled "Reflections on the History of World in 20th Century" Web-site www.peaceamongmankind.com.)
 
 
SHOULD INDIA BE AFRAID OF CHINA
Part III
 
When Communists came to power in 1949, China shared borders with 14 countries and maritime boundaries with 7. Territorial disputes existed with Soviet Union, with Central Asian Republics, Japan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Sikim, Burma Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei and Philippines. Most serious boundary problems were with Soviet Union, India and Vietnam and it fought wars with them.

Taiwan is a special case, though it is the most important and may prove very dangerous. Taiwan was part of Chinese Empire till Sino-Japanese war in 1895. U.S. is a seeker of world hegemony and does not like Communist China to have Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a part of China and is determined to prevent Taiwan coming under any other power. U.S. gives most modern arms including missiles to Taiwan to prevent China from overpowering Taiwan. If necessary, U.S. is determined to jump in the fray tilting the balance in Taiwan's favor. To probe Communist China, U.S. encourages Taiwan move towards independence. Communist China replies with angry response; so also when U.S. gives weapons to Taiwan to bring parity between Taiwan and China. From the end of WW II, U.S. has been against Chinese Communists. Even now Red China secretly distrusts U.S. especially because of Taiwan and considers U.S. as its biggest enemy.
In the beginning, Nehru's idea was that best policy for both, India and China was to have friendly relations in the self-interests of both countries, as well as Asia and the world. Both had suffered from imperialists. If they become enemies like France and Germany in Europe, they would suffer as had been the case with France, Germany and Europe. Red China did not agree due to its "Middle Kingdom" mentality and Mao looked down on India. Nehru was sad with this rift. But, he was not afraid of China. Nehru wrote on October 1, 1959 to Chief Ministers, "No principle and no policy can be pursued thru weakness or fear. I have no fear of China.... there is no need for us to fear and indeed fear is never a good companion.... We have to be firm and vigilant." On October 26,1959 Nehru wrote to Chief Ministers, "I think we are strong enough to protect ourselves though we might have a few knocks."

After Communists came in power, China's policy was to encourage people's wars in other countries. This isolated China from other countries except Soviet block. After China and Soviet Union fell out in 1960, China remained in isolation, except with U. S. from 1973. China did not get much help from U.S. After the collapse of Soviet Union in 1990, China feared that U.S. would give China a charge-sheet to pull it down, just as it did with Iraq in 1990. China changed its foreign policy to befriend nations on its periphery, so that it will not be isolated in case of trouble with U.S. It succeeded. It made special efforts to befriend Russia, India, Vietnam and South Korea. By the dawn of 21st century it solved border problems with Russia and Vietnam and it had friendship treaties with Russia, Vietnam and South Korea. In the case of India, it realized what Nehru had thought about friendship between China and India. It became an observer of NAM movement. China now believes U.S. is arrogant, hegemonic power threatening both China and India. Hence China and India should stand together to restrain U.S. unipolar, unilateral and hegemonic behavior.
China's growing naval presence in Indian Ocean in comparison to that of U.S. navy or even much smaller Indian Navy is negligible. Similarly, PLA's Air Force has big numbers but not quality. Most of its fighters are aged J6 and J7 made in China based on Soviet fighters - J6 is Mig19 and J7 is copy of Mig21. They are sitting ducks in aerial combat with modern fighters. Its modern fighters acquired since 1990 are few. India's fighters have bigger percentage of more recent aircraft. Opinion of a renowned American expert on Chinese military and its modernization may be quoted in next paragraph:

"Indian forces along its lengthy border are generally regarded as superior in numbers and quality to Chinese border forces as shown in two skirmishes in 1967 and 1987-88. It is because India continues to improve its most relevant capabilities for countering any political threat across the border, by upgrading or acquiring new aircraft, missiles, artillery, command and communication facilities and radars. China has for some time been most interested in developing cooperative ties with India. Far greater concern is to India's evolving missile program. In response to China's threat, India has sought to expand its own nuclear capability by exploding a nuclear weapon in 1998, and is devoting considerable resources to the development of both medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles, that are capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to any major Chinese cities."

Chinese military philosopher, Sun Tsu wrote that best general is one who can win a war without firing a shot. How is this possible? By propaganda and sending spies to enemy country, so that the enemy is demoralized and begins to think it is too weak to win. Those Indians, who are making people believe that we are too weak compared to China, are really doing the work about which Sun Tsu wrote. It is important to remember that both India and China are nuclear powers. Nuclear powers do not go to war against each other for petty reasons. China has to think about other enemies along the border. Secondly, number of troops, which can invade India from Tibet, is limited. Moreover Indians should understand ideas of Nehru who piloted the ship of state in most difficult and dangerous period of freedom.
April 25, 2010 P.K. Nigam
(The writer is author of recently published book, titled "Reflections on the History of World in 20th Century" Web-site www.peaceamongmankind.com.)
 
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